Some recent public discussion around the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada has suggested restricting our energy exports as leverage. But natural gas imported from the United States represents an even greater vulnerability for Ontario. More than 60% of the gas that Ontario uses to heat our homes and power our industries isn’t local – it comes to us via the United States.
Should the U.S. ever decide to disrupt or restrict the flow of natural gas, our reliance on gas becomes a threat to our energy security. To better understand Ontario’s risk exposure, TAF analyzed gas production and consumption data to estimate just how much of our provincial gas demand is being met by U.S. gas.
In 2025, Ontario consumed a total of 32 billion cubic metres of gas. About 63% of that gas came into our province via the U.S., with the balance coming directly from Alberta. Notably, Ontario’s own domestic gas production amounted to less than 1% of Ontario’s consumption. Although these results represent a single 12-month period, the broader conclusion remains that Ontario depends heavily on natural gas flowing across the U.S. border. While Canada exports significant quantities of energy to the U.S., energy imported via the U.S. represents a serious risk.
The good news is that we have a solution that benefits both our energy security and the climate. Instead of finding another source of gas to alleviate this risk, the most effective long-term solution is to reduce our gas demand altogether through the efficient electrification of our economy. Technologies like heat pumps enable us to heat and cool our homes and buildings with electricity. Better yet, we have the ability to create and distribute clean electricity here in Ontario with domestic resources we control.
We’re already seeing how cost-effective renewable electricity is; Ontario’s most recent capacity procurement secured 640 megawatts of new battery storage with storage prices 16% lower than the previous round, the lowest-cost capacity procurement in Ontario’s history. By producing our own cost-effective electricity through solar, wind and battery storage, we protect Ontarians from the increasing volatility of fossil fuel prices, reducing long-term energy price inflation. As trade tensions continue to evolve, it’s clear that electrification represents the better path to greater energy security, lower emissions, and a cleaner, more resilient energy future for Ontario.
Leave a Reply