Carbon emissions in the GTHA rose by a million tonnes in 2023, representing a 2% increase over the previous year. This is the third straight year of increases, bringing emissions back to pre-pandemic levels. The factors driving emissions increases are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, meaning accelerated action is urgently needed to bend the curve. Getting on track for 2030 climate targets now requires average reductions of 11% every year until 2030. Incremental approaches simply won’t be sufficient.
The need for climate action couldn’t be clearer – or more pressing. Globally, 2023 was the warmest year on record, and 2024 is on track to break that record again. Extreme weather continues to take a growing toll on our economy and communities, with a record breaking $7.7 billion in insured losses across Canada so far this year. This includes nearly a billion dollars in flooding damage from record breaking rainfall in the GTHA. The climate is changing faster than we can adapt, and the pace and scale of on-the ground impacts are accelerating.
What is driving increases in total emissions? One factor is growth – more people living and working in the region, resulting in more cars on the road and more homes and buildings to heat. Per capita emissions actually fell by 1.2%, but the region’s population grew by 3.2%, leading to an increase in total emissions. The biggest absolute increases came from the transportation sector, where population growth was compounded by fewer people working from home, resulting in a 4.7% increase in tailpipe emissions.
The fastest growing source of emissions continues to be from electricity generation: despite a 0.7% reduction in electricity consumption, electricity emissions increased 30% driven by increased use of gas-fired power plants. Electricity emissions have more than doubled over the past four years and are expected to double again over the next three years.
The data also show that when policies and programs are established and technologies deployed, they work to drive down emissions. Total weather normalized energy use in the building sector fell, despite significant growth in the number of buildings; improvements in efficiency are outpacing growth in the buildings sector, if only just, demonstrating the value of green development standards. Two-thirds of buildings approved under version 4 of the flagship Toronto Green Standard are using electric heat pumps for heating and cooling including a growing share opting for superefficient geothermal heat pumps. Active transportation rates increased, including for cycling (4%) and walking (7%) trips, and transit ridership grew rapidly (28%). EV adoption also continues to increase, with the number of battery electric vehicles registered in the GTHA growing by an incredible 50% in 2023.
There are also signs of progress in climate policy, which are poised to pay dividends in the years ahead. Green Development Standards continue to expand, with new standards approved in Caledon, Mississauga, and Hamilton over the past year. Now, 86% of the GTHA (by population) is covered by green development standards with low carbon design requirements. The City of Toronto is developing an emissions performance standard for existing buildings, which could be a model for the rest of the region. The federal government finalized the EV Availability Standard, which will ensure rapid growth in the market share of EVs starting in 2026. The federal government also published a draft of the Clean Electricity Regulations, which if finalized (expected later this year) will require reductions in the use of gas-fired power plants, albeit not until 2036.
The fact remains, however, that emissions are moving in the wrong direction, and the clock is ticking. It’s time to move past declarations and strategies and focus on accelerating implementation of climate action at all levels and in all sectors. We can and need to demonstrate how climate actions can also address affordability, housing and mobility concerns.
Cities and communities are at the forefront of climate action and resilience, but they will need more and faster innovation to improve the way we build and travel in our neighbourhoods. With uncertain times ahead for climate leadership across Canada, local actors become even more essential.
Provincial and federal elections are on the horizon, and all parties and political hopefuls need to be honest about the realities of climate change and how they plan tackle carbon alongside crises like affordability, housing, and job creation. True leadership will demonstrate how to follow the data and deliver the promising clean energy solutions that are widely available today.
Read more in the 2023 Carbon Emissions Inventory for the GTHA
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