Carbon emissions from electricity in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) rose by 850,000 tonnes in 2023, representing a 30% increase over the previous year. In fact, grid emissions have more than doubled over the last four years according to data from the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), and are expected to double again in the next three years.
The concerning upward emissions trend underscores the urgent need for a long-term plan that guides the energy transition in Ontario. That’s why TAF supports the development of Ontario’s Integrated Energy Plan (IEP), a necessary step toward modernizing energy planning in the province.
If done right, the IEP presents a unique opportunity to align Ontario’s energy strategy with climate goals, while ensuring affordability, economic growth, and resilience. The province has five related consultations underway, which will all have an impact on whether emissions get under control or continue this carbon-intensive path.
Positive signals in Ontario’s integrated energy plan
TAF is encouraged by several key elements that the government has signaled will be a part of the IEP.
The Minister has signaled that the plan will emphasize electrification, including draft legislation adding promotion of electrification to the mandate of the IESO. Electrification is a critical step in reducing emissions, improving air quality, and fostering clean economic growth across the province. By transitioning to a more electrified economy, Ontario can significantly cut its carbon footprint.
However, electrification alone won’t drive down emissions far enough. To avoid offsetting emissions reductions with an increasingly carbon intensive grid, electrification must be paired with energy efficiency and demand flexibility. Legislative proposals in Bill 214 indicate that the IEP is expected to include a focus on energy efficiency. Efficiency measures would reduce overall demand on the grid, make the most of our existing energy supply, and eliminate the need for costly natural gas expansion.
The government has also signaled an expanded role for the Local Distribution Companies (LDCs). LDCs are confronting the dual challenge of modernizing the grid to support electrification while ensuring its resilience in the face of growing demand and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. We support the empowering of LDCs to make prudent investments in the face of these challenges.
Seizing the opportunity
This plan represents a pivotal opportunity to create a modern, sustainable energy system that works for all Ontarians. For the IEP to succeed, TAF encourages strengthening several key elements.
First, setting economy-wide emission reduction targets is critical to aligning Ontario’s energy strategy with the broader goal of achieving net zero emissions. As TAF has previously highlighted, the absence of clear, long-term carbon targets in Ontario’s energy strategy risks undermining progress and diminishing the province’s clean energy advantage. These overall targets should be supported by specific technology adoption targets (e.g. heat pumps, electric vehicles, etc.) that cover all sectors of the economy – energy production, transportation, buildings, and industry – ensuring a comprehensive approach to decarbonization. This provides a clear roadmap that offers businesses and investors certainty about the province’s energy strategy, encouraging innovation and investment in clean technologies and, more broadly, in Ontario.
Additionally, the plan must set a pathway for reducing reliance on and ultimately phasing out natural gas, both from our electricity grid and as the primary source of energy for space and water heating. Electrification should not come at the expense of Ontario’s low-carbon grid.
Another key opportunity is to increase transparency. More data and accountability are needed to support better decision-making and track progress. Businesses, customers, utilities, and the government need access to the right tools and data to make informed decisions, optimize energy use, and ensure that policies are on track. By improving the collection and accessibility of data, we can enhance collaboration, enable better planning, and foster a more efficient and responsive energy system.
Finally, the process to design and implement this plan must reflect the challenge of effectively integrating our natural gas and electricity systems. Integrated energy planning is long overdue in this province and will require sustained effort as well as input and oversight from independent energy professionals. The province has provided a vision of Ontario’s energy future; they must now ensure that its energy experts are empowered with autonomy and space to fully realize that vision.
Moving forward together: Next steps
IEP provides an opportunity to shape Ontario’s energy future in a way that benefits everyone. TAF looks forward to engaging in the ongoing consultation process and encourages all interested stakeholders to submit comments.
Here’s where to send your feedback:
- Integrated Energy Plan Consultation: closing Dec 13, 2024.
- Proposal to Change Cost Responsibility Rules for Electricity Connection Infrastructure: closing Dec 7, 2024.
- New Proposal for An Electricity Energy Efficiency Programming to Promote Beneficial Electrification: closing Dec 7, 2024.
Related consultations, the 2025–2036 Electricity Energy Efficiency Framework and Proposed Amendments to Enable an Affordable Energy Future, have recently closed. For more information or copies of TAF’s ERO submissions, contact policy@taf.ca.
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