Clean electricity is proving to be the most effective weapon against climate change, allowing countries around the world to dramatically reduce their carbon emissions while still expanding their economies.
But you wouldn’t know it here in Toronto.
While the rest of the developed world is making real progress toward reducing emissions, Canada’s emissions continue to rise. And according to new data released Tuesday, emissions from electricity in the GTHA are rising the fastest.
Carbon emissions rose 8 per cent across the region last year, going up in every category, from transportation to housing to industry to waste to agriculture. But while those increases ranged from two to nine per cent over the previous year, electricity emissions rose 26 per cent in 2022, and 56 per cent over the past two years.
“That’s because the use of natural gas generation is increasing,” said Bryan Purcell, Vice President of Policy and Programs at The Atmospheric Fund (TAF), a public agency jointly funded by all three levels of government. “That’s eroding some of the progress we’re making to electrify buildings and transportation.”
In order to meet our 2030 reduction targets, emissions need to drop 9 per cent every year.
Switching to electricity is widely considered the easiest way to eliminate carbon emissions from virtually every aspect of our economy, from driving to heating, prompting the popular climate slogan: electrify everything.
But if that electricity itself produces emissions, it undermines the reductions made everywhere else.
A Star investigation published last month found that Ontario’s fleet of natural gas plants, which are supposed to run only when electricity demand peaks around two per cent of the time, actually run more than 12 hours a day.
In the GTA, the plants run almost 15 hours a day. And last summer, when electricity demand was highest, the Portlands plant in downtown Toronto ran 21 hours a day, not only increasing carbon emissions but also producing toxic air pollution in the most densely populated region of the country.
Burning fossil fuels to make electricity has to be ramping down, not up, said Julia Langer, CEO of TAF.
“We must not go backwards. We’re seeing procurements to support new fossil fuel infrastructure — like natural gas plant expansions, like building highways — that has to stop. If you’re stuck in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging.”
The provincial government is attempting to build 1,500 megawatts of new natural gas plants to meet growing demand for electricity, especially at peak times, but is having trouble finding willing host communities.
Critics, including RBC, have pointed out that gas plants are a bad investment because they will have to be phased out by 2035 to comply with the federal government’s Clean Electricity Regulations. Expert analyses conclude that grid-scale batteries, efficiency programs and renewables could do the same job as natural gas plants more inexpensively.
“This report shows definitively that we should not be procuring any new fossil fuel infrastructure. That includes gas plant expansions, new gas hookups in new homes. And we need to start phasing out existing fossil fuels with cleaner options,” said Purcell.
Behind the headline numbers, there are signs of real progress in the report, including rapidly increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and electric heat pumps. Hundreds of thousands of Canadians are buying these technologies not to reduce their emissions, but to save money.
As gasoline prices tick upward and natural gas prices spike, the average household would save $4,300 per year by electrifying their lives, a joint Toronto Star–Corporate Knights analysis found.
“Electric vehicle sales increased by 75 per cent over the previous year,” Purcell said. “EVs still represent a small portion of cars on the road, but polling shows a majority of Canadians are considering an EV for their next vehicle purchase.”
Transit ridership is also burgeoning, up by 58 per cent in 2022 across the region. That increase was even higher in Brampton where transit use is now well above pre-pandemic levels
Another positive step, according to Purcell, is that homeowners are showing a keen interest in retrofitting their homes. Home retrofit activity is up 400 per cent since 2021, largely due to federal incentives, he said.
People across the GTHA are busy electrifying everything, but the report shows progress isn’t happening fast enough, Langer said.
“The solutions are right in front of us,” she said. “Policies and programs to support them must be bigger and faster.”
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